Parables

'The heart of the sensible will reflect on parables, an attentive ear is the sage's dream.'

Ecclesiasticus: 3,29

Gold

'gold is tested in the fire'

Ecclesiasticus: 2, 5

Purpose

'Only a constant purpose can endow events with stable meaning'
(...)
'A common purpose is the only whereby perception can be stabilized, and one interpretation given to the world and all experiences here.'

From 'A course in miracles'.

Rage and joy

'The rage of the wicked cannot put him in the right, for the weight of his rage is his downfall.

A patient person puts up with things until the right time comes: but his joy will break out in the end.' Ecclesiasticus: 1, 22-23

The Euro-fantasy

Charles Hugh Smith,  It's your choice, Europe: rebel against the banks or accept debt-serfdom. www.oftwominds.com/blogdec11/euro-debt-serfdom12-11.html

(...)

'So you see, Europe, there is only one choice: either accept the endless debt serfdom of ever-rising interest payments and lower income and productivity, or rebel against your pathetic lackey leadership and renounce the entire mountain of unpayable debt. Grasp the nettle and renounce the euro as the fundamental cause of your fantasy and collapse, and revert to national currencies which enable the market to discover the price of your underlying productivity and ability to borrow money.

Renouncing the euro does not mean renouncing the freedoms of the European Union: the two are only bound at the hip in the minds of your enfeebled leadership, who are in thrall to the leveraged-26-to-1 banks that are poised on the edge of insolvency.

Let the banks implode in bankruptcy, clear the worthless "assets" of debt from the books, and let the market price currencies and everything else. The only other choice is debt-serfdom.

All the other schemes and proposals are simply variations of one single fantasy: that the feckless leadership can fool the repricing genie with parlor tricks. They can't. Everybody with any understanding of the situation knows that the debt bubble has already burst, and risk and debt cannot be repriced back to fantasy levels.'

(...)

Preferential independence

'The preferencese at any given time may be dependent on what consequences recently have occured. (...) Specifically, attributes measuring impacts in time period t are not preferentially independent of those measuring impacts in time period t - 1. The general reason is that the level of impacts in time t and the change from t-1 are concerned with different fundamental objects'

Keeny, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge. Massachusetts. Harvard University Press, 173.

Another futile thing

'Another futile thing that happens on earth: upright people being treated as though they were wicked and wicked people being treated as though they were upright. To me this is one more example of futility.'

Ecclesiastes: 8, 14

Who knows?

'And who knows what is best for someone during life, during the days of futile life which are spent like a shadow? Who can tell anyone what will happen after him under the sun?'

Ecclesiastes: 6, 12

Decision analysis

'(...) what king marching to war against another king would not first sit down and consider whether with ten thousand men he could stand up to the other who was advancing against him with twenty thousand?'

Luke: 14,31

Uncertainty

'The public needs to understand that in science uncertainty is not the same thing as ignorance; rather it is a discipline for quantifying what is unknown.'

 

Lemmonick, M.D. 2010. "Climate Heretic". Scientific American, nov. 2010, 62/63

Natural law

'All living beings strive for their well-being by satisfying their basic instincts and basic needs. The fact that human nature is not working otherwise, is a basic idea of the great representatives of the traditional doctrine of natural law (...)'

Messner, J. 1984. Das Naturrecht (Natural law). Berlin, p.315

Wetenschap en geloof

(...) "Een belangrijke rol in de ontwikkeling van de natuurwetenschappen was overigens weggelegd voor de Drie-eenheidsgedachte. ‘Hierin’, aldus de fysicus en psycholoog Ewald Vervaet, ‘wordt de Geest  gezien als de liefdesband tussen de Vader en de Zoon. Dat heeft een gesloten Godsbeeld tot gevolg. Het westerse christendom verwerpt dan ook de mogelijkheid tot kennis over God die verder gaat dan de openbaring. Wie nu al Godkennis wil, dient zich voorlopig tevreden te stellen met flauwe afspiegelingen van Hem vanuit de empirie, de kennis vanuit bevindingen. Zo ontmoedigt het westers christendom elke gerichtheid op directe Godkennis en moedigt het een empirische gerichtheid aan [cursiv. FH]. En dat is bevorderlijk voor de opkomst van de wetenschap.’ Volgens Vervaet zijn naast het christendom alleen religies die een persoonlijke God erkennen bevorderlijk voor de wetenschap, dus naast het christendom alleen het jodendom en de islam. Deze religies kijken namelijk positief naar het zijnde, dus naar wat onderzocht zou kunnen worden. Daarnaast hebben de exoterische religies (de religies met een persoonlijke God) een lineair tijdsbesef omdat deze religies samenhangen met bepalende gebeurtenissen in de geschiedenis. Dit lineaire tijdsbesef is onontbeerlijk in de wetenschap. Ook de verlossing door een Heiland die hoger staat dan wijzelf is een element. Met name in het specifieke geval van het Christendom is dat duidelijk omdat de verlossing door Christus maakt dat de mensen tijd en energie overhebben voor andere zaken dan de zelfverlossing van het hindoeïsme en boeddhisme. Tenslotte geldt in de exoterische religies dat de geloofsleer niet strijdig mag zijn met de logica, ratio en de feiten, een geweldige stimulans voor het beoefenen van wetenschap [1]. Het was inderdaad dan ook precies het besef van een absolute Orde (die in overeenstemming moest zijn met de empirie), dat Newton, Kepler en Einstein leidde bij hun ontdekkingstocht door de natuur. Het is daarom niet toevallig dat grote en hoogstaande culturen, zoals de chinese, perzische en indiase, toch nooit een wetenschap – en een maatschappelijke solidariteit – hebben voortgebracht zoals die van het christelijke Westen. Veeleer zijn ze gestrand in fatalisme en quietisme. Zelfs de Grieken ontwikkelden geen wetenschap zoals wij die heden bedrijven. Whitehead ziet de oorzaak van het Griekse falen juist in het feit dat ze alleen ‘schitterende denkers waren en stoutmoedig redeneerden. Hun aanleg’, aldus Whitehead, ‘was minder geschikt voor de toestand van verbeeldingsrijke, doezelige onzekerheid die aan het uit feiten afgeleide generaliseren voorafgaat.’ Deze verbeelding, dit vermoeden van een onuitsprekelijk geheim, kan niets anders zijn dan de influx van genade als gevolg van de intuïtie van het bestaan van God." (...)

Uit: Fred Hamburg, Waarom democratie? (nog ongepubliceerd; geinteresseerde uitgevers kunnen zich bij mij melden).

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[1] “Het westers christendom heeft de wetenschap gebaard” – interview door Eugéne Brusse met Ewald Vervaet. In Katholiek Nieuwsblad, 15 augustus 2003, p.4/5

Faire des livres

'(...) sois averti que faire des livres est un travail sans fin'

Ecclesiastes: 12, 12.

Bounded reality

'In real world practice, problems do not present themselves to the practitioner as givens. They must be constructed from the materials of problematic situations (...). When we set the problem, we select what we will treat as the 'things' of the situation, we set the boundaries of our attentions to it, and we impose upon it a coherence which allows us to say what is wrong and in what directions the situation needs to be changed'.

Schoen, D.A. 1983. The reflective practitioner: how professionals think in action. Basic Books, 39/40

Differing worldviews

'One can decide that a phenomenon of interest is systematic and thus capable of being predicted, or one can decide that the phenomenon is random and not predictable (...). Note that there are two kinds of errors. If one decides that a phenomenon is systematic when it is random, the error that results is manifest in myths, magic, superstitions and illusions of control. This error is most likely to characterize the clinical approach, which seeks causal explanations for all behavior (...). [The] other error (...) is more likely to characterize the statistical approach. In this case, on decides that a phenomenon is random when it is systematic. This error results in lost opportunities and illusions of the lack of control (...). [The] choice between the clinical and statistical approach in any given situation will depend on: (1) One's beliefs regarding the probabilities of the states of nature (...) (2) The relative costs of the two types of errors. For example, to what degree is superstition and appriopriate price to pay for not missing an opportunity to predict more accurately; and (3) The relative payffs for the hits/correct choices'

Einhorn, H.J. 1986. 'Accepting error to make less error', Journal of Personality Assessment: 50, 392/94

Quantification

'(...) quantification of judgements by experts [FH: likelihood ratios!] will permit use of sophisticated analytical techniques long before they would be practical if a massive data base had to be constructed on a prospective basis'.

Gustafson et al. 1977. 'A probabilistic system for identifying suicide attemptors', Computers and Biomedical Research, 10, 83/89

Observer

'Qui observe le vent ne seme pas,
qui regarde les nuages ne moisonne pas'

Ecclesiaste: 11.4

The politician's dilemma

Op het eind van de Tweede Wereldoorlog, direct voorafgaand aan de conferentie van Jalta, werd Polen bevrijd door Stalin. Het probleem deed zich nu voor welke regering erkend moest worden, de lokaal ontstane regering Loeblin of de in London zetelende regering in ballingschap onder leiding van de - zojuist aangetreden - Thomas Arciszewsky. Ook ontstond er (weer) discussie over de precieze grenzen van Polen, met name wat betreft de grens met de USSR. Van bange voorgevoelens vervuld in verband met de op handen zijnde conferentie in de Krim zocht Arciszewsky via zijn gezant Jan Ciehanowski belet bij Roosevelt. Deze laatste trachtte vergeefs in audiëntie ontvangen te worden. Gezant Ciehanowski heeft slechts een gesprek kunnen voeren met Harry Hopkins, vertrouweling van de president. De Amerikaanse regering, ventileerde Hopkins, had het druk met andere belangrijke kwesties. Op de opmerking van Ciehanowski wat belangrijker kon zijn dan (1) nu reeds te handelen op basis van beginselen van Amerika en (2) de grondslagen van de toekomstige samenwerking tussen de verenigde naties te wortelen in deze beginselen en de vier fundamentele vrijheden, antwoordde Hopkins lachend en meedogenloos: ‘Wij moeten ook reeds denken aan de presidentsverkiezingen in 1948’.


Uit: Fred Hamburg, Waarom democratie?

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War

'The soldier, having experience of war, fears it more than the doctrinaire who, being ignorant of war, talks only of peace'

Wheeler-Bennett, The nemesis of power.

Misjudgement

'One evil I observe under the sun: the sort of misjudgement to which rulers are prone -
folly promoted to the top and the rich taking the lowest place.
I see slaves riding on horses and princes on foot like slaves'.

Ecclesiastes: 10, 5-6

Death

'Man is the only being that knows death; all others become old, but with a consciousness wholly limited to the moment which must seem to them eternal'.

Spengler, O. The decline of the West.

Waking existence

'A system consists of truths, a history rests on facts. (...) Hence for the one, the necessity of the mathematical, and for the other, the necessity of the tragic. (...)
In the actuality of waking existence, both worlds, that of scrutiny and that of acceptance (Hingebung), are interwoven, just as in a Brabant tapestry warp and woof together effect the picture'

Spengler, O. The decline of the West.

Destiny

'I feel myself driven towards an end that I do not know. As soon as I shall have reached it, as soon as I shall become unnecessary, an atom will suffice to shatter me. Till then, not all the forces of mankind can do anything against me'

Napoleon

We don't understand

‘Yes, I have (…) experienced all this to be so: that is to say, that the upright and the wise, with their activities, are in the hands of God. We do not understand either love or hate, where we are concerned, both of them are futile. And for all of us is reserved a common fate, for the upright and for the wicked, for the good and for the bad; whether we are ritually pure or not, whether we offer sacrifice or not: it is the same for the good and for the sinner, for someone who takes a vow, as for someone who fears to do so. This is another evil among those occurring under the sun: that there should be the same fate for everyone. The human heart, however, is full of wickedness; folly lurks in our hearts throughout our lives, until we end among the dead. But there is hope for someone still linked to the rest of the living: better be a live dog than a dead lion. The living are at least aware that they are going to die, but the dead know nothing whatever. No more wages for them, since their memory is forgotten. Their love, their hate, their jealousy, have perished long since, and they will never have any further part in what goes on under the sun. So, eat your bread in joy, drink your wine with a glad heart, since God has already approved your actions. At all times, dress in white and keep your head well scented.’

Ecclesiastes : 9, 1-8

Money

'Money is now quite beyond human control. Governments do not control their country's money, though they like to pretend they do. True, there are some immensely wealthy individuals and international corporations whose actions briefly van have some noticeable effects on the world economy, but there is no one individual or corporation who can claim to understand, much less direct, the universal, changing patterns of money and its effects'

D.Rowe. 1997. The real meaning of money. London: HarperCollinsPublishers.

Unduly wise

'In my futile life, I have seen everything:
the upright person perishing in uprightness
and the wicked person surviving in wickedness.
Do not be upright to excess
and do not make yourself unduly wise:
why should you destroy yourself?'

Ecclesiastes: 7, 15-16

Fear

'The price of peace, probably the only thing that can make humanity abandon its longstanding desire to try its hand at the game of war, is, unfortunately, fear'

Crevelt, M. van. 2008. The culture of war. New York: Ballantine books, 289

Speculations

'Countless academic nuclear strategists like nothing better than to write lengthly treatises on whether this or that technological development, way of deploying nuclear weapongs, or doctrine will make nuclear war more or less likely. In practice their speculations have proved almost entirely irrelevant, because they were never put to the test. All the strategists can do is play with words, sometimes supplemented with mathematical equations few people can understand and which may be even less relevant to any kind of reality than words are.'

Creveld, M. van. 2008. The culture of war. New York: Ballantine books, 286

Oppression and injustice

'If in a province you see the poor oppressed, fair judgement and justice violated, do not be surprised, for over every official there watches a higher official, and over these, higher officials still.' Ecclesiastes: 5.7

Gelijkheid?

'Zich in het grondprobleem ‘man en vrouw’ te vergissen, hier het grondeloos diepe antagonisme en de noodzakelijkheid van een eeuwig vijandige spanning te loochenen, hier wellicht van gelijke rechten, gelijke opvoeding, gelijke aanspraken en verplichtingen te dromen, dat is een typisch teken van een bekrompen geest'.

Friedrich Nietzsche

Decision aids

'I am prompted to refer back to history and to the people who opposed the introduction of stethoscopes because they thought that this aid to their diagnostic acumen was not warranted'

M.Tabone-Vassallo (letter), in Adams et al. 1986. 'Computer aided diagnosis of acute abdominal pain: a multicentre study', British Medical Journal, p.1306.

Likelihood ratio

'(...) logs of likelihood ratios had a major influence on the outcome of World War II'

Dowie, J. 1989. Professional Judgement. Open University.

Futile

'The more we say, the more futile it is'

Ecclesiastes: 6,11.

Appetite

'All toil is for the mouth, yet the appetite is never satisfied'

Libya

Citaat van een Engelse specialist in het analyseren van ‘preventieve’ oorlogen (ergens gelezen op het internet):

‘The war in Libya can be termed as a war of disinformation. The western biased media have manipulated the situation from the beginning till now. For instance, the bombings by NATO fighters were not only carried out on military targets, but also hit civilian houses, hospitals, schools and hotels. So there is definitely something more than the usual humanitarian reasons behind the war. […]

Gadhaffi’s negatives […] do not mean that Libyans needed freedom. This may come as a shock to many but - Libya is actually considered to be the Switzerland of Africa and the lifestyle of it’s middle-class is better than most of the other African nations. Libya has highest literacy rate in North Africa - 82% of its population can read and write. The schools and hospitals are free for people. Condition for women is much better than all Arab countries and they can wear what they want. Social service allows unemployed citizens to receive cash handouts. All the cash in overseas accounts thought to be in the royal family’s name turned out to be Libyan State owned money. Why this war than? Why this cry and bloodshed for democracy?’

[PS. Ongeveer een week voor de ellende begon zou Libië een speciale vermelding (of prijs) krijgen van de VN wegens het op exemplarische wijze behartigen van de mensenrechten in Afrika (of zoiets). Dit alles is gedocumenteerd terug te vinden op internet, o.a. op de site van Pravda.]

Complete agreement

'People may honestly say they are in complete agreement on the objectives and then find they are mistaken'.

Keeney, R.L.1992.Value-focused thinking.Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 160

Rien de nouveau

'Ce qui fut, cela sera

ce qui s'est fait se refera

et il n'a rien de nouveau sous le soleil'

L'Ecclesiaste: 1.9.

Regression toward the mean

Bij volstrekt willekeurige metingen van een bepaald fenomeen zullen extreme gevallen in het algemeen gevolgd worden door minder extreme gevallen.

Redundant questions

'It is useful in any assessment to ask redundant questions in different ways'
Keeney, R.L.1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge, Massachu

La peur

'La peur en effet n'est rien d'autre que la defaillance des secours de la reflexion'

De gemiddelde burger

'Wat mij het meeste treft (...) is het feit dat (...) [in] de psyche van de gemiddelde burger (...) de grote politieke kwesties in het algemeen op een lijn [staan] met de vrije-tijdsbestedingen (...) en met onderwerpen waarover zonder enig verantwoordelijkheidsbesef kan worden geconverseerd'
J.A.Schumpeter in Kapitalisme, Socialisme

Instruction

'Yes, your judgements are great and impenetrable, which is why uninstructed souls have gone astray.'
Wisdom 17.1

Votre coeur

'Car ou est votre tresor, la aussi sera votre coeur'
Luc.12, 34

Attributen

'A major difficulty in many decision situations is that attributes are not easy to identify'. R.L.Keeney,Value-focused thinking. Cambrigdge: Cambridge University Press, 110.
[Een attribuut is een maatstaf waarmee vastgesteld kan worden in welkemate een objectief verwezenlijkt is.]

Recht en politiek

'Das Recht muss nie der Politik, wohl aber die Politik jederzeit dem Recht angepasst werden'
Immanuel Kant

Ethiek

Ethiek is in eerste instantie geen kwestie van procedure maar van inhoud.

[Algemeen inzicht]

Inspraak

'Vaak blijkt [de burger] onvodoende geinformeerd om zijn rol als onderdaan naar behoren te spelen´
Thomassen, J.J.A red. 1981. Democratie, theorie en praktijk, Alphen aan den Rijn Samsom uitgeverij, 84.

Normative principle

'(...) we cannot formalise a decision problem until we know which normative principle to apply to the resolution of the problem'

Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambrdige: University Press, 30

Virtues

'[It] is clear that the renaissance of virtue theory has enriched normative ethics considerably, and the emergence of virtue-based approaches to issues (...) has created a promising alternative to the rather formulaic methonds of the more established approaches'.

Justin Oakley in Kuhse, H. & P.Singer (eds.), A companion to bioethics. 2001. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.

Mannen en vrouwen

Wil een samenleving beter af zijn, dan moeten - volgens de speltheorie - de spelers in die samenleving risico durven te nemen en bereid zijn een pure decision-game te spelen. Sommige filosofen trekken hieruit de conclusie dat hiermee een speciaal licht geworpen wordt op de belangrijke rol van mannen in de samenleving (mannen zijn doorgaans minder risico-aversief dan vrouwen).

La Honte

'n'aie pas honte (...) d'examiner les balances et les poids'
L'Ecclesiastique 42.4