Vooruit zien en denken

"Steeds werk ik, ik denk veel. Schijn ik altijd voorbreid en tegen alles opgewassen, dan heb ik lang nagedacht alvorens het geringste te ondernemen, ik heb vooruit bedacht, wat zou kunnen gebeuren. Er is generlei genius, die mij plotseling geheimzinnig influistert, wat ik te doen of te zeggen heb, alles is slechts overleg en nadenken, altijd, aan tafel, in de schouwburg; 's nachts word ik wakker om te werken'
Napoleon (geciteerd in Ludwig, E. 1986. Napoleon.Trendboek: 156)

Values First! (II)

'What your alternatives are depends partly on what your normative principle tells you to seek to achieve'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 30.

What is a state?

'a state is a part of the world that is not an outcome or an act' (...)

'it is a bad idea not to include states in a formalisation' (...)

'states should be chosen such that the value of the outcomes under all states is independent of whether the state occurs or not'

Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 19/22

Too late

'A good decision made an hour too late, is, in effect, no decision at all'
Anonymous

Gevoel

Wij beslissen vaak op ons gevoel. Dit is in veel gevallen niet verstandig. Wanneer we een positief gevoel hebben, onderschatten wij immers de kans op een nadelige uitkomst.

[Algemeen bekend gegeven uit de cognitieve psychologie]

Style

'Issues of style may be as important as those of substance'
Keeney, R.L. 1998. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: University Press,240.

Mensen en keuzeopties

'Als het even kan, willen mensen situaties en keuzeopties die omgeven zijn met ambiguiteit vermijden (...). Bovendien blijken mensen ronduit slecht in het doordenken van onzekere keuzeopties (...')'
WRR rapport. 2009. De menselijke beslisser. Amsterdam: University Press, 34.

If, then

'In order to make a good decision at the current time, we have to know what the appropriate contingent strategies are in the future'
Clemens, R.T.1997. Making hard decisions, 108.

[Vooral bedoeld voor politici die niet van als/dan vragen willen weten]

Rival formalisation

'[D]ifferent individuals may create different influence diagrams for the same decision problem, depending on how they view the problem'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 67

Social engineering

'Perhaps the most important role for game theory is to insist that any reform needs to coordinate behaviour on an equilibrium if it is to survive in the long run'
Binmore, K. 2007. Game theory. A very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 64.

Refining

'Refining the context several times and iterating through the corresponding sets of objectives are not signs of poor decision making; instead, they indicate that the decision situation is being taken seriously, and that many different possibilities and perspectives are being considered'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions,50

Essence of ultimate decision

'The essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer - often, indeed, to the decider himself (...).
John F. Kennedy

Requisite decision models

'[A decision] model is requisite when the decision makers's thoughts about the problem, beliefs regarding uncertainty, and preferences are fully developed'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 8

'The only way to get to a requisite model is to continue working on the decision until all of the important concerns are fully incorporated. Sensitivity analysis (...) will be a great help in determining which elements are important'
Ibid., 67

Statistics?

'Mensen zien patronen en verzinnen verklaringen. Bij een coincidentie komt een verhaal'
Professor Richard Gill op 1 november 2010 tijdens het Studium Generale (Leiden)