zaterdag 29 oktober 2011

Faire des livres

'(...) sois averti que faire des livres est un travail sans fin'

Ecclesiastes: 12, 12.

zaterdag 22 oktober 2011

Bounded reality

'In real world practice, problems do not present themselves to the practitioner as givens. They must be constructed from the materials of problematic situations (...). When we set the problem, we select what we will treat as the 'things' of the situation, we set the boundaries of our attentions to it, and we impose upon it a coherence which allows us to say what is wrong and in what directions the situation needs to be changed'.

Schoen, D.A. 1983. The reflective practitioner: how professionals think in action. Basic Books, 39/40

donderdag 20 oktober 2011

Differing worldviews

'One can decide that a phenomenon of interest is systematic and thus capable of being predicted, or one can decide that the phenomenon is random and not predictable (...). Note that there are two kinds of errors. If one decides that a phenomenon is systematic when it is random, the error that results is manifest in myths, magic, superstitions and illusions of control. This error is most likely to characterize the clinical approach, which seeks causal explanations for all behavior (...). [The] other error (...) is more likely to characterize the statistical approach. In this case, on decides that a phenomenon is random when it is systematic. This error results in lost opportunities and illusions of the lack of control (...). [The] choice between the clinical and statistical approach in any given situation will depend on: (1) One's beliefs regarding the probabilities of the states of nature (...) (2) The relative costs of the two types of errors. For example, to what degree is superstition and appriopriate price to pay for not missing an opportunity to predict more accurately; and (3) The relative payffs for the hits/correct choices'

Einhorn, H.J. 1986. 'Accepting error to make less error', Journal of Personality Assessment: 50, 392/94

Quantification

'(...) quantification of judgements by experts [FH: likelihood ratios!] will permit use of sophisticated analytical techniques long before they would be practical if a massive data base had to be constructed on a prospective basis'.

Gustafson et al. 1977. 'A probabilistic system for identifying suicide attemptors', Computers and Biomedical Research, 10, 83/89

Observer

'Qui observe le vent ne seme pas,
qui regarde les nuages ne moisonne pas'

Ecclesiaste: 11.4




maandag 17 oktober 2011

The politician's dilemma

Op het eind van de Tweede Wereldoorlog, direct voorafgaand aan de conferentie van Jalta, werd Polen bevrijd door Stalin. Het probleem deed zich nu voor welke regering erkend moest worden, de lokaal ontstane regering Loeblin of de in London zetelende regering in ballingschap onder leiding van de - zojuist aangetreden - Thomas Arciszewsky. Ook ontstond er (weer) discussie over de precieze grenzen van Polen, met name wat betreft de grens met de USSR. Van bange voorgevoelens vervuld in verband met de op handen zijnde conferentie in de Krim zocht Arciszewsky via zijn gezant Jan Ciehanowski belet bij Roosevelt. Deze laatste trachtte vergeefs in audiĆ«ntie ontvangen te worden. Gezant Ciehanowski heeft slechts een gesprek kunnen voeren met Harry Hopkins, vertrouweling van de president. De Amerikaanse regering, ventileerde Hopkins, had het druk met andere belangrijke kwesties. Op de opmerking van Ciehanowski wat belangrijker kon zijn dan (1) nu reeds te handelen op basis van beginselen van Amerika en (2) de grondslagen van de toekomstige samenwerking tussen de verenigde naties te wortelen in deze beginselen en de vier fundamentele vrijheden, antwoordde Hopkins lachend en meedogenloos: ‘Wij moeten ook reeds denken aan de presidentsverkiezingen in 1948’.


Uit: Fred Hamburg, Waarom democratie?

donderdag 13 oktober 2011

War

'The soldier, having experience of war, fears it more than the doctrinaire who, being ignorant of war, talks only of peace'

Wheeler-Bennett, The nemesis of power.

Misjudgement

'One evil I observe under the sun: the sort of misjudgement to which rulers are prone -
folly promoted to the top and the rich taking the lowest place.
I see slaves riding on horses and princes on foot like slaves'.

Ecclesiastes: 10, 5-6


woensdag 12 oktober 2011

Death

'Man is the only being that knows death; all others become old, but with a consciousness wholly limited to the moment which must seem to them eternal'.

Spengler, O. The decline of the West.

dinsdag 11 oktober 2011

Waking existence

'A system consists of truths, a history rests on facts. (...) Hence for the one, the necessity of the mathematical, and for the other, the necessity of the tragic. (...)
In the actuality of waking existence, both worlds, that of scrutiny and that of acceptance (Hingebung), are interwoven, just as in a Brabant tapestry warp and woof together effect the picture'

Spengler, O. The decline of the West.

maandag 10 oktober 2011

Destiny

'I feel myself driven towards an end that I do not know. As soon as I shall have reached it, as soon as I shall become unnecessary, an atom will suffice to shatter me. Till then, not all the forces of mankind can do anything against me'

Napoleon

zaterdag 8 oktober 2011

We don't understand


‘Yes, I have (…) experienced all this to be so: that is to say, that the upright and the wise, with their activities, are in the hands of God. We do not understand either love or hate, where we are concerned, both of them are futile. And for all of us is reserved a common fate, for the upright and for the wicked, for the good and for the bad; whether we are ritually pure or not, whether we offer sacrifice or not: it is the same for the good and for the sinner, for someone who takes a vow, as for someone who fears to do so. This is another evil among those occurring under the sun: that there should be the same fate for everyone. The human heart, however, is full of wickedness; folly lurks in our hearts throughout our lives, until we end among the dead. But there is hope for someone still linked to the rest of the living: better be a live dog than a dead lion. The living are at least aware that they are going to die, but the dead know nothing whatever. No more wages for them, since their memory is forgotten. Their love, their hate, their jealousy, have perished long since, and they will never have any further part in what goes on under the sun. So, eat your bread in joy, drink your wine with a glad heart, since God has already approved your actions. At all times, dress in white and keep your head well scented.’

Ecclesiastes : 9, 1-8

donderdag 6 oktober 2011

Money

'Money is now quite beyond human control. Governments do not control their country's money, though they like to pretend they do. True, there are some immensely wealthy individuals and international corporations whose actions briefly van have some noticeable effects on the world economy, but there is no one individual or corporation who can claim to understand, much less direct, the universal, changing patterns of money and its effects'

D.Rowe. 1997. The real meaning of money. London: HarperCollinsPublishers.

woensdag 5 oktober 2011

Unduly wise

'In my futile life, I have seen everything:
the upright person perishing in uprightness
and the wicked person surviving in wickedness.
Do not be upright to excess
and do not make yourself unduly wise:
why should you destroy yourself?'

Ecclesiastes: 7, 15-16

Fear

'The price of peace, probably the only thing that can make humanity abandon its longstanding desire to try its hand at the game of war, is, unfortunately, fear'

Crevelt, M. van. 2008. The culture of war. New York: Ballantine books, 289

maandag 3 oktober 2011

Speculations

'Countless academic nuclear strategists like nothing better than to write lengthly treatises on whether this or that technological development, way of deploying nuclear weapongs, or doctrine will make nuclear war more or less likely. In practice their speculations have proved almost entirely irrelevant, because they were never put to the test. All the strategists can do is play with words, sometimes supplemented with mathematical equations few people can understand and which may be even less relevant to any kind of reality than words are.'

Creveld, M. van. 2008. The culture of war. New York: Ballantine books, 286

Oppression and injustice

'If in a province you see the poor oppressed, fair judgement and justice violated, do not be surprised, for over every official there watches a higher official, and over these, higher officials still.'

Ecclesiastes: 5.7