donderdag 25 februari 2010

A principle of human acts

'Now the deeds we perform, these being the concern of the practical reason, all originate from our last end'
Thomas Aquinas, Summa Theologiae 1a2ae.90.2 (On Law)

vrijdag 19 februari 2010

Data

'Data have value only if they will help lead you to better consequences, either through the creation of better alternatives or through the wiser choice of alternatives'.
Keeney, R.L.1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 25.

Decision opportunities

'A physical examination may identity health problems and suggest how to improve your health. Is it proactive to avoid health problems in the future. By analogy, a life examination to identify discontentment or unrecognized potential achievement of your values may suggest decision opportunities to improve your quality of life and avoid possible future problems'.
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 19.

Un sot

'Qui se fie a son propre sens est un sot, qui chemine avec sagesse sera sauf'
Proverbes, 28.26

woensdag 17 februari 2010

Utility

'It is hard to think of any minimally reasonable decision rule that totally ignores the concept of utility'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 91

Normative conclusions

'(...) no normative conclusion can be derived form purely factual premises'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introdution to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 294.

woensdag 10 februari 2010

Psychology and statistics

'Psychological incalculables are apt to upset statistical calculations - to the perplexity of military pedants whose minds are fed on 'balance-sheet history'
(...)
'It is the impression received by the supreme commander, more than the actual situation of troops, that determines the issue of war'
Hart, L.1944. Thoughts on War. London: Faber & Faber, 22.

Decision analysis for everyone?

'Answer a fool in the terms of his folly for fear he imagines himself wise'
Proverbs, 26.5.

woensdag 3 februari 2010

Majority rule

'(...) the majority rule will sometimes generate cyclic preference ordenings. (...) [T]his shows that it cannot be applied as a general recipe for resolving social choice problems'.
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 267.

maandag 1 februari 2010

Values first! (I)

'Values are more funtamental to a decision problem than are alternatives. Just ask yourself why you should ever make the effort to choose an alternative rather than simply let whatever happens happen'
Keeney, R.L.1992, Value-focused thinking. Cambridge, Massachusets: Harvard University Press, 8.