Differing worldviews

'One can decide that a phenomenon of interest is systematic and thus capable of being predicted, or one can decide that the phenomenon is random and not predictable (...). Note that there are two kinds of errors. If one decides that a phenomenon is systematic when it is random, the error that results is manifest in myths, magic, superstitions and illusions of control. This error is most likely to characterize the clinical approach, which seeks causal explanations for all behavior (...). [The] other error (...) is more likely to characterize the statistical approach. In this case, on decides that a phenomenon is random when it is systematic. This error results in lost opportunities and illusions of the lack of control (...). [The] choice between the clinical and statistical approach in any given situation will depend on: (1) One's beliefs regarding the probabilities of the states of nature (...) (2) The relative costs of the two types of errors. For example, to what degree is superstition and appriopriate price to pay for not missing an opportunity to predict more accurately; and (3) The relative payffs for the hits/correct choices'

Einhorn, H.J. 1986. 'Accepting error to make less error', Journal of Personality Assessment: 50, 392/94