zaterdag 9 oktober 2010

Convergence

'If two or more decion makers initially disagree about the unconditional probability of some random event, i.e. if they start with different priors, than this disagreement could be resolved by applying Bayes' theorem over and over again every time they receive new data' (...) 'Therefore, it does not really matter if a group of people do not know what the 'true' prior is; no matter what numbers they start off with they will always come to agree in the long run'
Peterson M.2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 130

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