vrijdag 19 november 2010

If, then

'In order to make a good decision at the current time, we have to know what the appropriate contingent strategies are in the future'
Clemens, R.T.1997. Making hard decisions, 108.

[Vooral bedoeld voor politici die niet van als/dan vragen willen weten]

woensdag 10 november 2010

Rival formalisation

'[D]ifferent individuals may create different influence diagrams for the same decision problem, depending on how they view the problem'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 67

zondag 7 november 2010

Social engineering

'Perhaps the most important role for game theory is to insist that any reform needs to coordinate behaviour on an equilibrium if it is to survive in the long run'
Binmore, K. 2007. Game theory. A very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 64.

zaterdag 6 november 2010

Refining

'Refining the context several times and iterating through the corresponding sets of objectives are not signs of poor decision making; instead, they indicate that the decision situation is being taken seriously, and that many different possibilities and perspectives are being considered'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions,50

donderdag 4 november 2010

Essence of ultimate decision

'The essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer - often, indeed, to the decider himself (...).
John F. Kennedy

woensdag 3 november 2010

Requisite decision models

'[A decision] model is requisite when the decision makers's thoughts about the problem, beliefs regarding uncertainty, and preferences are fully developed'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 8

'The only way to get to a requisite model is to continue working on the decision until all of the important concerns are fully incorporated. Sensitivity analysis (...) will be a great help in determining which elements are important'
Ibid., 67

dinsdag 2 november 2010

Statistics?

'Mensen zien patronen en verzinnen verklaringen. Bij een coincidentie komt een verhaal'
Professor Richard Gill op 1 november 2010 tijdens het Studium Generale (Leiden)