dinsdag 21 september 2010

Maxim

'hard cases make bad law'

Martin Peterson says

'(...) in opposition to the proponents of bounded rationality, I do not believe that any empirical study has shown that we cannot obey the normative prescription proposed in the literature. The empirical studies merely show that we do not actually obey them. Surely, people could learn more about decision theory and eventually become more rational!'

woensdag 8 september 2010

Utility

"Utility is not a measure of happiness or wellbeing: it is simple a numerical representation of preference".

Allingham, M. 2002. Choice theory: a very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 26

maandag 6 september 2010

Syllogisms and sentimentalism

"In battle it is not syllogisms that will keep the reluctant nerves and muscles to their post in the third hour of the bombardment. The crudest sentimentalism (...) about a flag or a country or a regiment will be of more use"

Lewis, C.S. 1978. The abolition of man. Glasgow: Collins, 19

maandag 30 augustus 2010

The essence of strategy

[...] Only a Brilliant Ruler and an Excellent Leader
Who are able to conduct their intelligence with superiority and cleverness,
Are certain to achieve great results.
The Entire Force relies on this for every move.

This is the Essence of Strategy.

Sun Tzu,The art of strategy

zondag 22 augustus 2010

Intuitive decisionmaking

'There is no evidence that suggests that intuitive decisionmaking is superior to the formal approach and quite a lot that suggests that it is not'
Eiser, J.R, J.van der Pligt. 1998. Attitudes and decisions. London/New York: Routledge.

Creative alternatives

'The mind is the sole source of alternatives. Either the alternatives are somewhere in the mind waiting to be found, or they can be created from what is in the mind. But in this regard a person's mind is like a vast unexplored space. With such a vast area to to search for alternatives, intuitive and informal search strategies are often inadequate. Natural cognitive processes tend to guide our thought away from the areas of the mind that hold keys to creative alternatives. [...] What is needed are systematic and efficient ways to search through the mind that negate the natural tendency to think as we have thought before'
Keeney, R.L.1998. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: University Press, 198.