'...people prefer being given probabilities to having to infer them'
Allingham, M.2002. Choice theory: a very short introduction, 47
dinsdag 28 september 2010
woensdag 22 september 2010
Tools in decision theory
'Anyone who wishes to make rational decisions needs to reason correctly about probabilities, because probability theory is one of the most important tools in decision theory'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 118.
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 118.
dinsdag 21 september 2010
Martin Peterson says
'(...) in opposition to the proponents of bounded rationality, I do not believe that any empirical study has shown that we cannot obey the normative prescription proposed in the literature. The empirical studies merely show that we do not actually obey them. Surely, people could learn more about decision theory and eventually become more rational!'
woensdag 8 september 2010
Utility
"Utility is not a measure of happiness or wellbeing: it is simple a numerical representation of preference".
Allingham, M. 2002. Choice theory: a very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 26
Allingham, M. 2002. Choice theory: a very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 26
maandag 6 september 2010
Syllogisms and sentimentalism
"In battle it is not syllogisms that will keep the reluctant nerves and muscles to their post in the third hour of the bombardment. The crudest sentimentalism (...) about a flag or a country or a regiment will be of more use"
Lewis, C.S. 1978. The abolition of man. Glasgow: Collins, 19
Lewis, C.S. 1978. The abolition of man. Glasgow: Collins, 19
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