Mening

"Waar durf je je mee te bemoeien? Je laat een minister afzetten en een andere naar zijn landgoed verbannen! Je schept nieuwe, duur betaalde posities aan het hof! Heb je je wel eens afgevraagd met welk recht je je bemoeit met de aangelegenheden van het hof en de Franse monarchie? Hoeveel kennis heb je je verworven om je in te beelden dat jouw mening in welk opzicht dan ook van belang zou zin in regeringsaangelegenheden die een grote mate van kennis en zuiver inzicht vorderen?'
Joseph II tegen (zijn zus) Marie-Antoinette

Quantification

'Mais tu as tout reglé avec mesure, nomber et poids'
Sagesse, 11.20

Consensus

'Consensus today may become controversy tomorrow'
(uit mij onbekende bron)

Ankeren

Mensen neigen in het algemeen hun mening te ankeren in een enkel statistisch overzicht of een enkel feit dat vervolgens, vanaf dat moment, het denkproces overheerst.
FH

Politics

'the hard core of the governmental politics mix is personality'
Allison, G. & P.Zelikow. 1999. Essence of Decision. New York: Longman, 297

Sensitivity analysis

'Sensitivity analysis can aid the resolution of the problem of multiple representations by helping to identify the appriopriate perspective on the problem as well as by identifying the specific issues that matter to the decision maker'
Clemens, R.T. 1997l. Making hard decisions,158

Judges and decision making

'Without suggesting that the job of judges is just a matter of quick guesswork and routine, gilded with pomp and ceremony, I would like to state that judicial decision making is comparable to other kinds of open problem solving such as the grading of works of art by a viewing committee or the marking of an essay by a teacher. If sentencing is difficult, it is because of its uncertainty, not because of its complexity' (...). ' There is no reason to assume that judges and prosecutors are a complex subdivision of the human race deserving a theory of their own'
[FH: Helaas kan ik dit citaat niet terugherleiden tot een vindplaats.]

Vooruit zien en denken

"Steeds werk ik, ik denk veel. Schijn ik altijd voorbreid en tegen alles opgewassen, dan heb ik lang nagedacht alvorens het geringste te ondernemen, ik heb vooruit bedacht, wat zou kunnen gebeuren. Er is generlei genius, die mij plotseling geheimzinnig influistert, wat ik te doen of te zeggen heb, alles is slechts overleg en nadenken, altijd, aan tafel, in de schouwburg; 's nachts word ik wakker om te werken'
Napoleon (geciteerd in Ludwig, E. 1986. Napoleon.Trendboek: 156)

Values First! (II)

'What your alternatives are depends partly on what your normative principle tells you to seek to achieve'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 30.

What is a state?

'a state is a part of the world that is not an outcome or an act' (...)

'it is a bad idea not to include states in a formalisation' (...)

'states should be chosen such that the value of the outcomes under all states is independent of whether the state occurs or not'

Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 19/22

Too late

'A good decision made an hour too late, is, in effect, no decision at all'
Anonymous

Gevoel

Wij beslissen vaak op ons gevoel. Dit is in veel gevallen niet verstandig. Wanneer we een positief gevoel hebben, onderschatten wij immers de kans op een nadelige uitkomst.

[Algemeen bekend gegeven uit de cognitieve psychologie]

Style

'Issues of style may be as important as those of substance'
Keeney, R.L. 1998. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: University Press,240.

Mensen en keuzeopties

'Als het even kan, willen mensen situaties en keuzeopties die omgeven zijn met ambiguiteit vermijden (...). Bovendien blijken mensen ronduit slecht in het doordenken van onzekere keuzeopties (...')'
WRR rapport. 2009. De menselijke beslisser. Amsterdam: University Press, 34.

If, then

'In order to make a good decision at the current time, we have to know what the appropriate contingent strategies are in the future'
Clemens, R.T.1997. Making hard decisions, 108.

[Vooral bedoeld voor politici die niet van als/dan vragen willen weten]

Rival formalisation

'[D]ifferent individuals may create different influence diagrams for the same decision problem, depending on how they view the problem'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 67

Social engineering

'Perhaps the most important role for game theory is to insist that any reform needs to coordinate behaviour on an equilibrium if it is to survive in the long run'
Binmore, K. 2007. Game theory. A very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 64.

Refining

'Refining the context several times and iterating through the corresponding sets of objectives are not signs of poor decision making; instead, they indicate that the decision situation is being taken seriously, and that many different possibilities and perspectives are being considered'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions,50

Essence of ultimate decision

'The essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer - often, indeed, to the decider himself (...).
John F. Kennedy

Requisite decision models

'[A decision] model is requisite when the decision makers's thoughts about the problem, beliefs regarding uncertainty, and preferences are fully developed'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 8

'The only way to get to a requisite model is to continue working on the decision until all of the important concerns are fully incorporated. Sensitivity analysis (...) will be a great help in determining which elements are important'
Ibid., 67

Statistics?

'Mensen zien patronen en verzinnen verklaringen. Bij een coincidentie komt een verhaal'
Professor Richard Gill op 1 november 2010 tijdens het Studium Generale (Leiden)

Means objectives

'Now I don't see anything evil in a desire to make money. But money is only a means to some end. If a man wants it for a personal purpose - to invest in industry, to create, to study, to travel, to enjoy luxury - he's completely moral. But the men who place money first go much beyond that. Personal luxury is a limited endeavour. What they want is ostentation: to show, to stun, to entertain, to impress other.'

Howard Roark in The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand

Too much choice

'"What I mean is, what makes people unhappy is not too little choice, but too much," said Michell Layton, "Having to decide, always to decide, torn every which way all of the time."

From The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand

Rational action

'[I]ndividual rational action can hurt the group as a whole'
De Wit, B. & R.Meyer. 1998. Strategy. London: International Thomson Business Press, 104

Faire une action

'il y a un temps pour toutes choses et pout toute action ici'
L'Ecclesiaste, 4.17

Pragmatic arguments

'Generally speaking, pragmatic arguments seek to show that decision makers who violate certain principles of rationality may face a decision problem in which it is certain that they will stand to loose, come what may. (...) [N]ote that pragmatic arguments need of course not be formulated in monetary terms. One could equally well construct a scenario in which the decision maker who follows [his] irrational preferences is certain to lose some ice cream, or happiness, or moral virtue, or whatever she cares about'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 165.

Life isn't a zero-sum game

'When Gurus tell us that life isn't a zero-sum game, they (...) aren't saying anything about the total sum of happiness in the world. They are just reminding us that the games we play in real life are seldom games of pure conflict'
Binmore, K. 2007, Game theory. A very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 10.

Convergence

'If two or more decion makers initially disagree about the unconditional probability of some random event, i.e. if they start with different priors, than this disagreement could be resolved by applying Bayes' theorem over and over again every time they receive new data' (...) 'Therefore, it does not really matter if a group of people do not know what the 'true' prior is; no matter what numbers they start off with they will always come to agree in the long run'
Peterson M.2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 130

Self-evident

'If nothing is self-evident, nothing can be proved'
Lewis, C.S. 1978. The abolition of man. Glasgow: Collins

Event or propositions?

The theory of probability can be formulated in set-theoretical terms. Or in the language of propositional logic. 'The difference between the two approaches is important, since they assign probabilities to different kinds of things. If we use the first set of axioms we assign probabilities to events, that is, things that take place in the external world. The second set assigns probabilities to linguistic entities, viz. propositions'.
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 121.

Axioms

'The probability calculus is an axiomatised theory. This means that alle true (mathematical) statements about probability can be derived form a small set of basic principles, or axioms'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 120

Make what you will of this.....

'...people prefer being given probabilities to having to infer them'
Allingham, M.2002. Choice theory: a very short introduction, 47

Tools in decision theory

'Anyone who wishes to make rational decisions needs to reason correctly about probabilities, because probability theory is one of the most important tools in decision theory'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: University Press, 118.

Maxim

'hard cases make bad law'

Martin Peterson says

'(...) in opposition to the proponents of bounded rationality, I do not believe that any empirical study has shown that we cannot obey the normative prescription proposed in the literature. The empirical studies merely show that we do not actually obey them. Surely, people could learn more about decision theory and eventually become more rational!'

Utility

"Utility is not a measure of happiness or wellbeing: it is simple a numerical representation of preference".

Allingham, M. 2002. Choice theory: a very short introduction. Oxford: University Press, 26

Syllogisms and sentimentalism

"In battle it is not syllogisms that will keep the reluctant nerves and muscles to their post in the third hour of the bombardment. The crudest sentimentalism (...) about a flag or a country or a regiment will be of more use"

Lewis, C.S. 1978. The abolition of man. Glasgow: Collins, 19

The essence of strategy

[...] Only a Brilliant Ruler and an Excellent Leader
Who are able to conduct their intelligence with superiority and cleverness,
Are certain to achieve great results.
The Entire Force relies on this for every move.

This is the Essence of Strategy.

Sun Tzu,The art of strategy

Intuitive decisionmaking

'There is no evidence that suggests that intuitive decisionmaking is superior to the formal approach and quite a lot that suggests that it is not'
Eiser, J.R, J.van der Pligt. 1998. Attitudes and decisions. London/New York: Routledge.

Creative alternatives

'The mind is the sole source of alternatives. Either the alternatives are somewhere in the mind waiting to be found, or they can be created from what is in the mind. But in this regard a person's mind is like a vast unexplored space. With such a vast area to to search for alternatives, intuitive and informal search strategies are often inadequate. Natural cognitive processes tend to guide our thought away from the areas of the mind that hold keys to creative alternatives. [...] What is needed are systematic and efficient ways to search through the mind that negate the natural tendency to think as we have thought before'
Keeney, R.L.1998. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: University Press, 198.

Besluiteloosheid

'Volgens een op de gnosis teruggaande legende speelde zich in de hemel een worsteling tussen de engelen af, een worsteling waarin de aanhangers van Michael die van de Draak versloegen. De engelen die zich uit besluiteloosheid beperkten tot toekijken, werden naar dit ondermaanse verbannen, opdat ze hier alsnog de keuze zouden maken waartoe ze daarboven niet konden besluiten, een keuze die des te lastiger was omdat ze geen herinnering bewaarden aan het gevecht, en al helemaal niet aan hun dubbelzinnige houding'

Uit: Cioran,E.M.1995.'Gevierendeeld', Amsterdam: Arbeiderspers, p.9

A full life

'The decision maker who searches actively and creatively for new opportunities can look forward to many exciting possibilities and a full life'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 209.

Un travail sans fin

'(...) sois averti que faire des livres est un travail sans fin et que beaucoup d'etude fatigue le corps'
L'Ecclesiaste, 12.12.

Moed en handelen

Volgens Thomas van Aquino is de eerste handeling van de moed niet het handelend optreden, maar het verdragen van existentiele angst. Het doel daarbij is niet deze angst te onderdrukken, maar te proportioneren aan de werkelijkheid om deze vervolgens in het dagelijks leven te integreren.

Le temps et le jugement

"Le coeur du sage connait le temps et le jugement
car il y a un temps et un jugement pour toute chose"
L'Ecclesiaste 8, 6.

Refine!

'Much of the difficulty in decision making arises when different people have different ideas regarding some aspect of the decision. The solution is to refine the conceptualizations of events and variables associated with the decision enough so that is can be made'
Clemens, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions, 75

Multiple meanings

'A stated objective may represent different things to different people or multiple things to a single person. The distinctions are frequently subtle so that they are not recognized when objectives are being stated. Only during the tast of specifying attributes to measure objectives so the important clarifications occur'
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: University Press, p.159

Real life

"Theories are general and abstract, while real life is messy and detailed".
Rachels, J. 'Ethical theory and bioethics'. In Kuhse, H. & P.Singer (eds.), A companion to bioethics. Malden (MA), 2004, 15.

Unexpected events

"Unexpected events often occur, events that you did not build into your decision tree"
Weinstein, p.26

Concepten van oorlog

Er zijn drie concepten van oorlog (volgens Anatol Rapoport):

1. de politieke oorlog (als voortzetting van politiek (= machtsstrrijd); dus oorlog als rationeel instrument van nationale politiek - Clausewitz, Machiavelli)

2. de eschatologische oorlog (dus oorlog als missie; onderscheid hierin (a) de messianistische oorlog (heilige oorlogen, de kruisvaarten, de nazi-oorlogen) en (b) 'the final war' [die zal leiden tot de ontvouwing van een of ander 'grand design' (denk aan het communisme)]

3. de oorlog als cataclysme (dus als uitbraak van een catastrofe zoals een brand of epidemie; onderscheid hierin de ethnocentrische oorlog ('others threaten us') en de 'global war' (waarin het cataclysme de hele wereld aangaat). Zie voor dit concept van oorlog Tolstoi's Oorlog en Vrede.

Alle overige oorlogen betreffen gevallen van geschonden eer, ceremonie, misdaad etcetera.

Power over the world

"It is by means of names and numbers that the human understanding obtains power over the world"
Oswald Spengler, The Decline of the West.

More detail

"An attribute that is measurable defines the associated objective in more detail than that provided by the objective alone"
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University press, 113.

Measuring objectives

"(...) the assignment of attributes to measure objectives always requires value judgements".
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambrige: Harvard University Press, 100.

"(...) any attribute, even a natural attribute, requires subjective judgement" (ibid., 104)

Risk

"He who chops wood takes a risk from it"
Ecclesiastes: 10.9

La sagesse du pauvre

"La sagesse vaux mieux que la force
mais la sagesse du pauvre est meconnue
et ses paroles, personne les ecoute"
Ecclesiastes, 9.16.

Strategic decisions

"[Strategy is] the employment of the battle as the means towards the attainment of the object of war".
Clausewitz, On war.

"Strategic decisions are] decision contingent on the possible decisions of others, which, in turn, are assumed to be contingent on our possible decisions".
Clausewitz, On war.

Political advice

"In decision situations where making value judgements public is politically difficult or unwise, do not publicly communicate them, but use them to guide (...) a sensitivity analysis of the alternatives that can be made public"
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 151.

Value judgement

'(...) even saying that all deaths are equal is a value judgement'.
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 100.

Des calculs

'Dieu a fait l'homme tout droit, et lui, cherche bien des calculs'
Ecclésiaste 7.29.

Wijsheid uit de game-theory

In een samenleving is iedereen beter af wanneer men als regel samenwerkt. Zoals bijvoorbeeld roeiers in een roeiboot. Voortdurende samenwerking, evenwel, veronderstelt vertrouwen. In een samenleving waarin mensen alleen voor hun eigen belangen opkomen, is er weinig reden om een ander te vertrouwen. Iedereen is dan slechter af. FH

Appels en peren

Het overkomt iemand weleens dat hem in een discussie wordt tegengeworpen 'appels met peren te vergelijken'. Hieromtrent het volgende: iedere keer dat men appels prefereert boven peren (bijvoorbeeld bij de groenteboer) heeft men voorafgaand de beide soorten vergeleken. FH.

Objectives during life

"And who knows what is best for someone during life, during the days of futile life which are spent like a shadow?"
Ecclesiastes, 6.12.

The usual run of things

"Nobody is so wise as to be able to forecast every individual case, and accordingly he cannot put into words all the factors that fit the end he has in view. Even were the legislator able to take every event into consideration, he still should not set them all down in detail, for this would lead to muddle; but he should frame a law according to the usual run of things"
Thomas Aquinas, Summa Theologiae 1a2ae.96.6.

Nothing new

'What was, will be again, what has been done, will be done again,
and there is nothing new under the sun'
Ecclesiasticus, 1.9

A principle of human acts

'Now the deeds we perform, these being the concern of the practical reason, all originate from our last end'
Thomas Aquinas, Summa Theologiae 1a2ae.90.2 (On Law)

Data

'Data have value only if they will help lead you to better consequences, either through the creation of better alternatives or through the wiser choice of alternatives'.
Keeney, R.L.1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 25.

Decision opportunities

'A physical examination may identity health problems and suggest how to improve your health. Is it proactive to avoid health problems in the future. By analogy, a life examination to identify discontentment or unrecognized potential achievement of your values may suggest decision opportunities to improve your quality of life and avoid possible future problems'.
Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-focused thinking. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 19.

Un sot

'Qui se fie a son propre sens est un sot, qui chemine avec sagesse sera sauf'
Proverbes, 28.26

Utility

'It is hard to think of any minimally reasonable decision rule that totally ignores the concept of utility'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 91

Normative conclusions

'(...) no normative conclusion can be derived form purely factual premises'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introdution to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 294.

Psychology and statistics

'Psychological incalculables are apt to upset statistical calculations - to the perplexity of military pedants whose minds are fed on 'balance-sheet history'
(...)
'It is the impression received by the supreme commander, more than the actual situation of troops, that determines the issue of war'
Hart, L.1944. Thoughts on War. London: Faber & Faber, 22.

Decision analysis for everyone?

'Answer a fool in the terms of his folly for fear he imagines himself wise'
Proverbs, 26.5.

Majority rule

'(...) the majority rule will sometimes generate cyclic preference ordenings. (...) [T]his shows that it cannot be applied as a general recipe for resolving social choice problems'.
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 267.

Values first! (I)

'Values are more funtamental to a decision problem than are alternatives. Just ask yourself why you should ever make the effort to choose an alternative rather than simply let whatever happens happen'
Keeney, R.L.1992, Value-focused thinking. Cambridge, Massachusets: Harvard University Press, 8.

Holistic reasoning

'When stating preferences over a set of alternatives, it is rational to compare each alternative with the entire set of alternatives, even if some of those alternatives are certain not to be chosen. By adding a new object to the choice set, the relational properties of the initial objects may change, and sometimes our preferences are based on relational properties, such as uniqueness'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 52.

Finding an alternative-set

'What you alternatives are depends partly on what your normative principle tells you to seek to achieve'
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 30

Trust

'In most cases we are all better off if we cooperate and help each other, but this cooperation can only occur if we trust our fellow citizens. Unfortunately, we sometimes have little or no reason to trust our fellow citizens. In such cases it is very likely that we will end up with outcomes that are bad for everyone'.
Peterson, M. 2009. An introduction to Decision Theory. Cambrigde: Cambridge University Press, 10.

L'homme diligent

'Les projets de l'homme diligent ne sont que profit; pour qui se presse, rien que la disette'
Proverbes, 21.5

Faire la guerre

'Dans le conseil s'affermissent les projets: par de sages calculs conduis la guerre'
Proverbes, 20.18

Weloverwogen beslissen

'Maar wij, zwakke en blinde mensen, wie zijn wij? En wat is dat flakkerend lichtje dat wij 'rede' noemen? Zelfs al hebben wij alle kansen berekend, de geschiedenis aandachtig bestudeerd, en alle twijfels en belangen bediscussieerd, dan nog vermogen wij, in plaats van de waarheid, slechts een bedrieglijke nevel te ontwaren'
Joseph de Maistre, 1753-1821.
De Maistre, J. 2003. De Satanische Revolutie. Soesterberg: Aspekt, 139.

Wisdom

'Listen to advice, accept correction, to be the wiser in the time to come'
Proverbs, 19.20

Judgement

'A study of history, past, and in the making, suggests that most of mankind's troubles are man-made, and arise from the compound effect of decisions taken without knowledge, ambitions uncontrolled by wisdom, and judgements that lack understanding'.
Hart, L. 1944. Thoughts on War. London: Faber & Faber, 12.

Regle d'action

'Coeur intelligent acquiert la science, l'oreille des sages recherche le savoir'
Proverbes, 18.15

Consistency

'Consistency is a most conspicuous feature of mathematical truth. Not everything consistent is necessarily true, but everything true is necessarily consistent'
Juleon Schins, Cradle of Consciousness, 11

Oordeel

'Zij die slechts met een klein aantal gezichtspunten rekening houden, vinden het gemakkelijk om een oordeel uit te spreken'
Aristoteles, vrij geciteerd

Intelligence

'Intelligence is the ability to hold conflicting ideas in mind and retain the ability to function'
F.Scott Fitzgerald

'Le sot ne prends pas plaisir a etre intelligent mais a etaler son sentiment'
Proverbes, 18.2

'Plutot rencontrer une ourse privee de ses petits qu'un insense en son delire'
Proverbes, 17.12